Peter, aka Bayou Renaissance Man addresses this ongoing sticky issue. Included in his post are things from Zero Hedge showing incriminating campaign behaviors (from Wikileaks) in my home State of Arizona (which polls indicate is up for grabs between Blue and Red camps)
I’m sure that by now, most of my readers have learned about the incriminating e-mail sent by the Clinton campaign as long ago as 2008, and just revealed by Wikileaks. In case you missed it, here’s the salient excerpt.
I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.
There’s more at the link.
Zero Hedge points out:
The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations. In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:
Research, microtargeting & polling projects
- Over-sample Hispanics
- Use Spanish language interviewing (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)
- Over-sample the Native American population
For Florida, the report recommends “consistently monitoring” samples to makes sure they’re “not too old” and “has enough African American and Hispanic voters.” Meanwhile, “independent” voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.
- Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state.
- On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.
Meanwhile, it’s suggested that national polls over sample “key districts / regions” and “ethnic” groups “as needed.”
- General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions
- Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed
- Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed
Again, more at the link.
This absolutely confirms the recent revelation that the Clinton campaign was up to shady tricks (to put it mildly) in major media polling of potential voters. They’ve been doing it for years – don’t forget that the e-mail quoted above dates back to 2008!
It also explains recent triumphalist claims by the Clinton Campaign, for example: ‘Hillary Clinton is so far ahead of Donald Trump in the race for the presidency that she no longer even feels the need to pay attention to the Republican nominee.‘ As is now clear, she’s mainly ahead in polls that have been deliberately skewed in this way, so as to portray her as so far ahead that the election is effectively a ‘done deal’. I suppose that’s to try to persuade potential Trump and Republican voters not to bother to cast their vote, as there won’t be any point. Instead, they should stay home on election day and let events take their presumably inevitable course.
Thing is, of course, they’re not inevitable. Other polls (for example, this one) portray the race as much, much closer. All of us have a voice, and every voice (and every vote) counts. It’s up to us to use them.